The big August jobs report is due out Friday. Here's what to expect for what has been a jobless summer — SkimNews
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- Dow Jones consensus projects August nonfarm payrolls growth of just 53,000, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%
- June and July combined for a net loss of 3,000 jobs, and the August initial estimate has been revised lower for four consecutive years
- Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst expects an even weaker count of just 20,000 jobs, with unemployment potentially ticking up to 4.2%
- Fed Governors Michael Barr and Christopher Waller characterized the labor market as 'stable' and in 'satisfactory shape,' respectively, saying it is far less concerning than inflation
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas data shows the 2026 layoff pace is the slowest in four years, with weekly jobless claims in check
- Vanguard's 401(k) data indicates only 8,000 jobs gained in August, citing a 'noticeable decline' in hiring among 21-to-24-year-olds
- TPS cancellation for Haitians in July is projected to impact 350,000 people and could lower August employment rolls
Why it matters: The soft hiring picture is giving Fed officials room to prioritize inflation — Waller's Thursday comments on inflation pushed traders to price in a September hold. With layoffs at a four-year low and the unemployment rate anchored at 4.1%, the Fed sees the labor market as stable enough to resist rate cuts unless inflation fails to ease further.
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