Way-too-early Big 12 basketball tiers: Arizona, Houston and Kansas headline wide-open league after mass exits
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- Arizona enters 2026-27 as the Big 12's lone tier-1 title contender after a 36-3 season that ended in the Final Four, anchored by 7-foot-2 center Motiejus Krivas (a potential Big 12 Player of the Year), five-star freshman Caleb Holt, and UNC transfer Derek Dixon at point guard.
- Houston lost two starters (Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan) and two first-round picks (Kingston Flemings, Chris Cenac) but lands in tier 2 on the strength of LSU transfer point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. and returning big man JoJo Tugler, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
- Kansas added 7-2 Charleston transfer Christian Reeves and 6-9 Utah transfer Keanu Dawes — the best per-minute rebounders in their respective conferences — but lacks a proven point guard, with five-star guard Taylen Kinney's erratic Team USA U18 performance raising concerns.
- Iowa State lost Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson, and Tamin Lipsey yet remains a tier-2 contender behind coach T.J. Otzelberger's defense, built around point-of-attack stopper Killyan Toure, Blake Buchanan, and transfers Leon Bond III, Tre Singleton, and Jaquan Johnson.
- Cincinnati and Arizona State made significant coaching hires expected to shore up Big 12 depth, even as the conference lost eight of its top-30 scorers — headlined by Flory Bidunga (Kansas to Louisville), Milan Momcilovic (Iowa State to Kentucky), Tounde Yessoufou (Baylor to St. John's), and David Punch and Isaiah Johnson (both to Texas).
- The source frames the Big 12 as 'lacking foolproof rosters at the top' but with strong depth, noting that tier 1 status requires the upside to win six straight do-or-die games, not just make a deep March run.
Why it matters: The Big 12's 2026-27 title picture is uniquely volatile: proven production is harder to find after eight top-30 scorers fled to rival high-major leagues, but Arizona's Final Four core — minus Jaden Bradley, Koa Peat, and Tobe Awaka — gives the Wildcats a tier-1 floor that Houston, Kansas, and Iowa State can't quite match despite elite-level transfers and developmental coaching pipelines.
