With earnings in rearview mirror, SpaceX-Tesla merger chatter takes center stage — SkimNews
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- Musk endorsed a potential Tesla–SpaceX merger on Tuesday, saying “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes,” and revealing that both companies have formed special committees to explore a transaction.
- Tesla’s earnings showed declining auto revenue and a steeper drop in energy, even as Musk pitched robotaxis and humanoid robots; its self-driving technology remains in development, Robotaxi is very early and Optimus is not ready for high-volume production.
- Tesla shares fell 3% on Thursday and were down 17% for the year, while SpaceX plunged 9%, erasing Wednesday’s gains and dropping below its opening price after the June market debut.
- William Blair said Musk’s merger quest is about control, not strengthening the businesses, and found no material opportunity that could be achieved only through an official combination.
- SpaceX is controlled by Musk, who holds 10-to-1 supervoting shares and nearly 80% voting control; its Class A shareholders do not receive the same protections as companies subject to all Nasdaq governance rules, while a Tesla deal needs 50% of all shares despite Musk’s 19.8% beneficial stake.
- SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion market capitalization exceeds Tesla’s roughly $1.5 trillion, so a stock swap would make SpaceX the acquirer and potentially give Musk his best chance to control the combined entity.
- China accounted for 22% of Tesla’s revenue last year; Counterpoint Research identified antitrust, national-security and cross-border reviews as significant challenges, while Eric Talley cited Starlink satellites feeding data to the U.S. government and said “probably hundreds of thousands” of Teslas were operating in China.
Why it matters: William Blair sees control, not business strength, as the motive and finds no material synergy available only through a combination. Tesla approval requires 50% of all shares, despite Musk’s 19.8% stake, while SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion valuation exceeds Tesla’s roughly $1.5 trillion and would make SpaceX the acquirer in a stock swap.
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