Fantasy football rankings 2026: Sleepers, breakouts, busts via model that called Daniel Jones' huge year — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model released 2026 Fantasy football rankings for PPR and non-PPR leagues after simulating the NFL season 10,000 times, with a documented track record that includes calling Daniel Jones' 2025 QB10 finish, Jonathan Taylor's 2021 season, and Isiah Pacheco as a 2025 bust.
- Alec Pierce (Colts WR) is the model's top sleeper despite an ADP that has dropped nearly 10 slots to around pick No. 79; the model ranks him above Maik Nabers and Justin Jefferson, both drafted much earlier.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants QB) is the model's breakout pick at pick No. 105 overall, ranked ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert; he threw for 2,272 yards, 15 TDs and five INTs as a rookie and added 487 rushing yards and nine rushing scores.
- Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs RB) is flagged as a bust at his ADP of pick No. 20, with the model noting Andy Reid's offense hasn't produced a 1,000-yard rusher since 2017 and that Walker missed at least one game in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024.
- David Montgomery (Texans RB) is the week's biggest ADP riser, climbing from around pick No. 60 to No. 53 as Fantasy players target him as the lead back after splitting carries with Jahmyr Gibbs in prior seasons.
- The 2026 PPR ADP (via CBS) opens with Jahmyr Gibbs (1.27), Bijan Robinson (1.92), Ja'Marr Chase (3.94), Puka Nacua (4.98) and Jonathan Taylor (5.22) as the first five players off the board on average.
Why it matters: For Fantasy drafters heading into a major draft weekend, the model is making three high-conviction contrarian calls — Pierce over Nabers and Jefferson, Dart over Mahomes and Stafford, and Walker as a bust at top-20 ADP — that could swing draft board value by tens of picks and expose ADP overconfidence at running back and wide receiver.
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