Kape Favored Over Horiguchi in UFC Fight Night Main
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- UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi headlines a six-bout main card starting at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, one day after the promotion's 'historic visit to the White House.'
- Manel Kape (-162) faces Kyoji Horiguchi (+136) in a rematch of their December 2017 meeting, which Horiguchi won via submission; since then, Kape has gone 7-1 in the UFC with his last three wins all by knockout.
- Kyoji Horiguchi hasn't lost a fight in over four years, holds a 36-5 career record, and has won championships in both Rizin FF and Bellator since his initial UFC stint from 2013-16.
- On the light heavyweight co-feature, undefeated Navajo Stirling (-325) is a heavy favorite over Ion Cutelaba (+260), with the Angolan-Portuguese Kape holding a 1-inch leg-reach advantage over Horiguchi in the main event.
- SportsLine expert Kyle Marley is backing Allan Nascimento (-198) to beat Mitch Raposo on the prelims, citing a 5-inch reach edge and superior grappling: 'Give me Nascimento by sub or decision.'
- Marley's track record: $100 bettors following his picks are up nearly $10,000 over the past three-plus years, and he has returned well over $21,000 on UFC picks since May 2018.
- The full main card also includes Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira, Hyder Amil vs. Christian Rodriguez, André Lima vs. Kevin Borjas, and Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov.
Why it matters: Bettors face a real rematch trap: Kape is a -162 favorite with three straight KOs, but Horiguchi already beat him once (2017 submission) and hasn't lost in over four years, making the price on Kape thin relative to the history. Marley's 4+ year track record of $21,000+ returns gives his specific card picks — including the Nascimento submission angle — concrete weight for anyone sizing up the six-bout slate.
