Netanyahu, Saudis Compete to Shape Trump's Iran War Decision
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- Prince Khalid bin Salman met with Trump and VP Vance on Wednesday and conveyed Saudi Arabia's assessment that Iran seeks leverage through escalation via Houthi and Iraqi militia proxies, as the Kingdom joined U.S. strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq — its first public combat engagement in the six-month war.
- Saudi-led strikes on Iran-backed Iraqi militias killed at least 20 people including some Iranian military advisers, per the Iran-backed militia groups; Riyadh described its actions as defensive and had bombed Houthis days earlier.
- Netanyahu laid out three options for Trump — a deal focused on nuclear-material removal, a blockade with added economic pressure, or military strikes on land supply routes — in a meeting a senior Israeli official called "very clinical."
- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his brother Khalid are concerned Netanyahu is pushing for escalation and are working to avoid further regional miscalculation as the war stretches into its sixth month.
- Netanyahu still believes only regime change will produce real change in Iran and hopes to lay groundwork for an uprising, though U.S. intelligence does not assess that renewed strikes would dislodge the Tehran regime — a position Trump has said he opposes by favoring negotiations.
- The United Arab Emirates carried out dozens of airstrikes in Iran this spring without publicly acknowledging them, while Kuwait and Bahrain — both hosting U.S. troops — have fended off near-daily incoming drones and missiles from Iran and Iraqi territory.
- A senior Israeli official identified Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi as the only figure worth negotiating with, characterizing him as a "realist, but not a moderate."
Why it matters: Netanyahu's push for escalation clashes directly with MBS's push for de-escalation, leaving Trump as the tiebreaker between two allies with incompatible war aims — and Netanyahu's original 4-6 week war prediction, now defended as covering only the "tense part," has already collapsed, yet Israel retains outsized influence over whether the conflict pivots to diplomacy or deepens against a regime U.S. intelligence says strikes won't dislodge.
