National Grid Defends Split Gas-Electric Forecasts as 'Different — SkimNews
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- Philip DeCicco, National Grid New York's general counsel, rejected a Utility Dive claim that the utility's separate gas and electric forecasts are "conflicting," saying the author compared forecasts designed for different purposes and customer populations.
- Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. (NMPC) serves 1.7 million electric customers but only about 600,000 gas customers, a roughly 3-to-1 ratio DeCicco says makes a direct comparison of heat-pump totals fundamentally misleading.
- About 60% of heat-pump conversions in NMPC territory involve customers switching from delivered fuels like oil or propane rather than natural gas, so they affect electric demand planning but not gas planning.
- DeCicco said only about 5% of NMPC customers who install heat pumps fully disconnect from the gas system, while the Utility Dive piece implied roughly half would leave — a rate he called approximately 10 times higher than what National Grid is actually observing.
- The New York Public Service Commission management audit specifically identified National Grid's strong performance in electric and gas load forecasting, citing governance improvements and quality assurance controls, according to DeCicco.
- National Grid serves diverse New York territories from Buffalo to Albany and Brooklyn to Montauk with different climates, housing stocks, and adoption rates, requiring region-specific planning rather than uniform assumptions.
Why it matters: With New York regulators weighing how utilities should integrate gas and electric planning during the electrification push, National Grid is publicly defending the legitimacy of forecast methodologies that critics say drive infrastructure overbuilding. The dispute matters because the same forecasting frameworks drive billions of dollars in approved utility investments across NMPC's upstate territory and the downstate KEDNY/KEDLI service areas.
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