Iran deadline, oil surge, RBI curbs hit Indian market
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- Iran faces a U.S. deadline of April 6 for a peace deal, and President Trump warned that “all hell will break loose” within 48 hours if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Brent crude surged 56 % month‑on‑month, briefly crossing $109 per barrel before easing to around $106, while WTI topped $111, amid heightened U.S.–Iran tensions.
- Foreign portfolio investors sold a record Rs 1.22 lakh crore in March, the largest monthly outflow ever, driven by the conflict, soaring oil prices, rupee depreciation and a stronger U.S. dollar.
- Reserve Bank of India extended offshore‑derivative curbs by banning rupee non‑deliverable forwards, prompting the rupee to jump 1.8 % to 93.10 per USD, its steepest one‑day rise in over 12 years.
- Nifty is stabilising near 22,700 but retains a corrective bias; a break below 22,300 could push it toward 22,000‑21,800, while resistance sits at 22,800‑23,000 and a supply zone at 23,200‑23,500.
- Sensex hovers around 73,300 with immediate resistance at 73,800‑74,000; a sustained move above 75,000 is needed for sentiment, while a fall below 72,000 could extend the correction to 71,500‑71,000.
Why it matters: The oil‑price spike and Hormuz risk raise inflation and current‑account pressure, hurting import‑heavy firms; massive FPI outflows drain capital, while RBI’s derivative curbs bolster the rupee, aiding currency traders; the weak technical outlook points to further downside for Sensex and Nifty, impacting equity investors.
