Model picks Florida State (+19.5) over Alabama — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 33-21 run on top-rated college football money-line picks since the 2024 season, with an upgrade for 2026 to better factor in the transfer portal.
- The model projects Alabama beats Florida State 33-20 at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, making FSU (+19.5) a cover play at 66% simulation frequency while the Over (48.5) clears 53% of the time.
- Alabama's spread opened at -15.5 but has moved five full points to -19.5; FSU beat Alabama outright in Tallahassee last year and enters Saturday off a bye after playing in Week 0.
- LSU is a 2.5-point road favorite at Ole Miss in a top-10 Saturday matchup, despite Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt being listed as doubtful on the mid-week injury report.
- Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford as Ole Miss's head coach after bolting the program before last season's College Football Playoff, setting up what the source calls one of the most anticipated games of the season.
- The Week 3 slate opens Thursday with Syracuse at Pittsburgh, features Miami at Wake Forest (+20.5) and Houston at Texas Tech (-7.5) on Friday, and includes Georgia at Arkansas (+24.5) and Florida at Auburn (+2.5) on Saturday.
Why it matters: The model's 33-21 money-line track record since 2024 gives its Week 3 projections weight for bettors, particularly the FSU cover call against a spread that has ballooned five points from -15.5 to -19.5 — a market move that itself reflects uncertainty about Alabama's margin after the Tide trailed Kentucky at halftime before winning 45-17.
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