Predicting Where Top CFP Contenders' Perfect Seasons End
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- Ohio State is projected to lose at Texas on Sept. 12, with eight new defensive starters creating vulnerability against a Longhorns offense seeking payback after last season's loss in Columbus.
- Texas is projected to fall at Tennessee on Sept. 26 — all of its 2025 losses came away from home, and Arch Manning will need a silent count inside Neyland Stadium.
- Notre Dame's projected first loss is to Miami on Nov. 7 in a potential No. 1-vs.-No. 2 matchup; a defeat would turn the next SMU game into a playoff-elimination contest with BYU as the Irish's only quality win.
- Georgia is projected to lose at South Carolina on Nov. 21, with Gamecocks QB LaNorris Sellers, WR Nyck Harbor and edge rusher Dylan Stewart cited as three potential first-round NFL talents.
- Indiana's projected first loss is to Ohio State on Oct. 17, ending a nation-leading 22-game winning streak; the Hoosiers' first six opponents offer little resistance before that test.
- Miami is the only one of the 13 contenders projected to go undefeated, with the Notre Dame winner in November potentially being college football's lone unbeaten entering the postseason.
- Oklahoma is projected to lose at Georgia on Sept. 26 after a Week 2 win at Michigan, and LSU is projected to fall at Ole Miss on Sept. 19 — Lane Kiffin's first loss as Tigers coach.
Why it matters: Going undefeated is the clearest path to a CFP first-round bye and favorable playoff positioning, and these projections suggest 12 of 13 contenders will stumble — with Miami potentially entering the postseason as the sport's lone unbeaten if it survives Notre Dame on Nov. 7.
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