Cancer vaccine from Moderna, Merck shows promise in late-stage trial; both stocks soar
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- Moderna and Merck's personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, combined with Keytruda, met its primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial of more than 1,100 patients with higher-risk or advanced melanoma whose tumors had been surgically removed, significantly extending recurrence-free survival versus Keytruda alone.
- Moderna's stock surged roughly 177% on Wednesday while Merck climbed more than 12% — a gap that reflects their relative size entering the day, with Moderna's market cap near $25 billion against Merck's roughly $333 billion.
- Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel called the result "a big moment for medicine, a big moment for patients," while Dr. Dean Li, president of Merck Research Laboratories, told CNBC the drugmakers will engage regulators "in the next few months."
- Leerink Partners analyst Mani Foroohar had labeled the Phase 3 readout a "make-or-break event for Moderna's stock" in a June note, and the 177% surge suggests investors agree the bet has paid off.
- Merck and Moderna are already running trials of the same vaccine-plus-Keytruda combination in non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, and renal cell carcinoma, with analysts noting Moderna's valuation had already priced in cross-tumor potential.
- Dr. Jane Healy, Merck's head of oncology early development, said the vaccine is designed to train the immune system against each patient's unique tumor mutations rather than a one-size-fits-all target, with side effects comparable to standard vaccines.
Why it matters: Moderna's 177% single-session surge shows how much of its valuation was riding on this one trial — Leerink's Foroohar had called it "make-or-break" in June. Clinically, the combo beat the standard of care (Keytruda alone) on recurrence-free survival in melanoma, which accounts for only about 1% of skin cancers but causes the large majority of skin-cancer deaths.
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