Iran war to define Trump's legacy
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- Trump is roughly one month into a war against Iran that the authors argue will define his presidency more than the economy, framing the conflict as the centerpiece of his 'America First' foreign policy reshaping the world for generations
- AP-NORC polling cited in the piece shows 59% of Americans view the military action as 'excessive' and 45% are 'extremely' or 'very' concerned about rising gas prices — though the authors' own polling shows Americans broadly support the war
- Trump is reportedly considering a ground invasion to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, per the Times of Israel, a move the authors warn would put American soldiers at further risk and push oil prices higher
- Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have slammed Iran, downgraded ties, and frozen assets while pushing the U.S. and Israel not to let up until Iran is incapable of attacking them again
- Saudi Arabia's inclusion in the Abraham Accords — on ice since Oct. 7, 2023 — is no longer as remote a possibility, with Israel now the region's 'undisputed military hegemon' according to the column
- The war is reversing former President Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal legacy, which the authors say emboldened Iran and pushed Gulf allies toward Russia and China — a realignment Trump is 'on the cusp of undoing'
- Trump faces a binary legacy outcome: if Iran emerges a weakened but still hostile state, the authors predict his epitaph will be 'Trump always chickens out,' but a new Iranian government ending decades of hostility would cement his place in history
Why it matters: With 59% of Americans already calling the war 'excessive' and midterms approaching, Trump has narrowed his path to a positive legacy: escalate with ground troops to destroy the regime and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or walk away and own the 'chickens out' label. The Gulf states' unprecedented alignment with Washington — and the potential resurrection of the Abraham Accords — means the conflict is redrawing Middle East alliances in ways that benefit U.S. standing vis-à-vis Russia and China regardless of the war's duration.
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