Crisis Group: EU Should Narrowly Define Myanmar Ties
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- Myanmar's military is set to transfer power in early April to a nominally civilian administration following stage-managed elections that delivered a landslide to the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, with no major democratic or ethnic parties participating.
- Min Aung Hlaing, the former military chief and coup leader, is likely to become president but will share a modicum of power with other establishment figures under the 2008 constitution, creating potential internal rivalries even as no reform space opens.
- Crisis Group advises the EU to keep contacts with Naypyitaw limited, sustaining aid outside official channels and preserving Everything But Arms trade preferences that support hundreds of thousands of garment-sector jobs rather than conferring legitimacy on the new order.
- China has expanded political, military, and financial backing for the regime since mid-2024, pressed for the elections, and will expect accelerated approval of long-planned Chinese infrastructure and investment projects in return for endorsing the new administration.
- India has intensified engagement with the regime after a period of hedging toward border armed groups, while Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia are pushing to ease Myanmar's diplomatic isolation within ASEAN, and the U.S. could pivot toward greater engagement driven by China competition and critical minerals interest.
- Myanmar's civil war shows no sign of abating, with the conscription law's unpopularity accelerating outward migration of young workers while powerful opponents like the Arakan Army and Kachin Independence Army remain unlikely to face major military breakthroughs.
- Myanmar's illicit economy poses direct European risks: the country is the world's largest heroin producer, the dominant source of synthetic drugs in Asia Pacific, and hosts online scam centers involving at least 100,000 trafficked workers generating tens of billions of dollars annually, targeting European nationals and financial infrastructure.
Why it matters: The EU faces a concrete policy choice: it can either follow China, India, and ASEAN members into normalization, or hold the line on restrictions. Preserving EBA trade preferences protects hundreds of thousands of Myanmar garment workers — mostly women — from economic collapse, while the 100,000-person scam-center industry directly threatens European citizens and financial systems with organized-crime infiltration.
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