Sorry everyone, Bitcoin is headed down to $43,500: Michael Terpin
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- Terpin said greed is why most traders misread Bitcoin's market cycles, pointing to the November 2021 top around $69,000 when the market 'thought it was going to $100,000' despite ample time to exit above $60,000.
- Terpin had called an $85,000 'sweet spot' during the last cycle that Bitcoin never reached, blaming two consecutive cycles of 'bad macro' — including tariffs and 'manipulation' — for the underperformance.
- Bitcoin ultimately hit $100,000 in December 2024, roughly a month after Donald Trump won the US presidential election, per the article's timeline.
- Terpin rejected the argument that spot ETFs and institutional adoption have broken Bitcoin's four-year cycle, saying 'institutions absolutely sell' and dismissing the institutional-immunity thesis as 'garbage.'
- Terpin cautioned against Strategy and Michael Saylor's aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, noting the stock historically outperformed Bitcoin at cycle peaks but saying he'd 'rather bet on Bitcoin than a single company.'
- Terpin recommended Bitcoin over altcoins for hands-off investors, advising portfolio checks only 'a couple times during the four-year cycle' and otherwise staying on 'the golf course.'
- Bitcoin was up 1.67% over the prior 30 days, per CoinMarketCap data cited alongside the interview.
Why it matters: Terpin — an early backer of Ethereum, Tether, and the 2013 Mastercoin ICO — is challenging the institutional-immunity narrative underpinning the spot ETF bull case, arguing that 'institutions absolutely sell' means the four-year cycle remains the binding constraint. For investors who bought the 'ETFs create a floor' thesis, his call that the halving cycle still governs tops and bottoms reframes the next 12 months around cycle timing rather than inflows.
