Drugmakers Race to Break Lilly-Novo Obesity Drug
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- Eli Lilly unveiled Phase 3 data for retatrutide, a triple agonist hitting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors, with patients at the highest dose losing an average of 28% of their body weight — CEO Dave Ricks said nearly half lost more than 30%.
- Novo Nordisk reported that prescriptions for its Wegovy pill surpassed 3 million just five months into launch, and the company framed oral GLP-1s as the primary tool for bringing new patients into the weight-loss market.
- Structure Therapeutics and AstraZeneca shared mid-stage GLP-1 pill data, with Structure CEO Ray Stevens arguing that being the 'second small molecule drug' behind Lilly's Foundayo will matter when those pills reach market around 2029.
- Pfizer unveiled mid-stage data from a monthly shot it gained through its $10 billion Metsera acquisition, while Amgen is testing a candidate that could be dosed monthly or possibly quarterly — Amgen's Susan Sweeney said thinking about treatment as little as four times a year is a 'major advantage.'
- Zealand Pharma, developing petrelintide with Roche, presented mid-stage data showing roughly 11% body weight loss with fewer vomiting episodes than placebo; CEO Adam Steensberg called amylin drugs a potential 'iPhone moment' for the category.
- Medicare will allow millions of seniors to access obesity drugs for $50 a month out of pocket starting in a few weeks, part of Lilly and Novo's broader push to improve insurance coverage and cut list prices.
- Goldman Sachs analyst Asad Haider told attendees the central question for investors is not market volume but pricing, as newcomers weigh whether they can break the Lilly-Novo duopoly given 890 million obese and 2.5 billion overweight people globally.
Why it matters: With 890 million obese and 2.5 billion overweight people globally, Medicare's new $50/month out-of-pocket price for seniors arrives weeks before Phase 3 challengers reach market. Whoever wins on convenience — monthly shots, amylin's side-effect edge, or oral pills — could break the Lilly-Novo grip.
