Colombia Oil Output Hits 5-Year Low as Gas Imports Surge
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- Colombia's oil production fell to 734,924 barrels per day in February 2026, the lowest monthly output since July 2021 and 23% below a decade ago, per the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH).
- Natural gas output averaged 695 million cubic feet per day in February 2026, down 16% year-over-year and 35% versus ten years earlier, forcing Colombia to import 20% of its gas (up from under 4% a year ago) via costly LPG shipments.
- Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted 20% of global hydrocarbon supply, knocked out 17% of Qatar's natural gas capacity for up to five years, and pushed Brent above $144 per barrel before a two-week ceasefire triggered a price collapse.
- Colombia's budget deficit hit 7.5% of GDP in 2025, with economists projecting an all-time-high 8.1% for 2026 driven by President Gustavo Petro's spending and declining oil revenue during an election year.
- Industry association Naturgas warned natural gas prices will rise 20–25% in regions including Antioquia, home to Medellín, threatening the agricultural sector (30% of exports, 6% of GDP) and manufacturing (22% of exports, 11% of GDP).
- Illegal armed groups have grown to their largest size since the 2016 FARC peace deal, forcing greater security spending that compounds Bogota's fiscal strain alongside the energy crunch.
Why it matters: Colombia now imports 20% of its natural gas, up from under 4% a year ago, meaning every dollar spent on energy spikes triggered by Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure drains a budget projected to hit a record 8.1% of GDP deficit in 2026. With oil revenue (17% of exports) collapsing, Petro's government faces simultaneous fiscal, security, and energy crises heading into an election year.
