Pakistan raises defense spending amid regional conflicts
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Pakistan's draft budget raises defense spending 18% to 3 trillion rupees ($10.8 billion/€9.3 billion), with Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb citing the need to make the country "invincible due to the uncertainty in the region."
- The May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict — triggered by New Delhi's Operation Sindoor in retaliation for a Pahalgam tourist attack that killed at least 26 people — showed that nuclear weapons don't prevent conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold, per Sanober Institute's Qamar Cheema.
- Pakistan's western border adds another front: Islamabad declared "open war" with Kabul in February after a surge in militant attacks inside Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, with Pakistan accusing Afghan territory of being used as a launchpad.
- The defense hike lands inside a $7 billion IMF program, with Pakistan's $452 billion economy standing at roughly one-ninth of India's $4.15 trillion GDP and an 8:1 defense spending gap (India: ~$86 billion).
- Military spokesperson Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry acknowledged the shortfall, telling Bloomberg Pakistan's budget is "a fraction" of India's and that planners don't have "unlimited money" to close the gap.
- Defense analyst Maria Sultan told DW that future conflicts will be "fought across land, air, cyber and electronic domains simultaneously" with weapons and technology flowing from multiple countries.
- Pakistani lawmakers are expected to vote on the defense hike later this month, with the government seeking approval before the new fiscal year starts July 1.
Why it matters: Pakistan is raising defense outlays 18% to $10.8 billion while inside a $7 billion IMF program and facing an 8:1 defense spending gap with India. Columnist Khurram Husain notes the IMF treats defense as "non-negotiable" — meaning reforms land on other sectors, and provincial fiscal trade-offs could intensify if the political consensus frays.
Ask SkimNews
