Europe's China Paradox: 28% Import Surge vs. De-Risking
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- China's exports to the European Union rose 28% year-on-year in January and February 2026, with Italy (36%), France (32%), and Germany (31%) posting the steepest increases, undercutting Europe's 'de-risking' agenda.
- European public opinion is split: an 83% majority favors diversifying trade ties (2025 Eurobarometer) and a slim majority now views China as the world's top economic power, surpassing the United States (Pew), yet consumers keep buying cheap Chinese products.
- China has shown no flexibility on the EU's two top demands — trade rebalancing and curbing support for Russia's war in Ukraine — with the article citing 'brutal language' in Track 1.5 dealings with Kyiv, continued dual-use exports, energy purchases, and Russian access to financial markets.
- The European Union is signaling openness to a new investment deal via the planned Industrial Accelerator Act, which would mark an 'epochal reversal' of China's joint-venture strategy from the Deng Xiaoping era — a stance the article notes is more conciliatory than the current US position.
- China's public diplomacy is gaining ground in Europe as the Trump administration's tariff fights and 'cultural wars' play out on the continent, though Beijing's public praise of pragmatism coexists with member-state-level lobbying and pressure.
- China deploys a bifurcating approach toward Europe — verbally restrained toward the EU collectively while engaging individual capitals — and Chinese commentary on 'European strategic autonomy' mixes encouragement with 'biting irony' about the bloc's political gridlock.
Why it matters: Europe's policy contradictions are now measurable: a 28% jump in Chinese imports arrived the same year 83% of Europeans said they want to diversify away from China. The Industrial Accelerator Act puts Brussels on a collision course with Beijing over market access, while China's continued material support for Russia — dual-use exports and energy purchases — gives EU capitals little diplomatic cover to deepen economic ties without addressing the Ukraine war.
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