History Says McCarthy, Richardson Rarely Get Franchise Back
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- J.J. McCarthy heads into Year 3 with just 10 NFL starts after the Vikings named Kyler Murray their starter, ending his hold on the franchise role
- Anthony Richardson, drafted 4th overall three years ago, has been supplanted by Daniel Jones in Indianapolis and spent this summer battling Riley Leonard for the backup job
- Of seven recent first-round QBs whose teams moved on by their third season — Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields and Kenny Pickett — five eventually started another game but only Darnold and Mac Jones posted a top-16 EPA-per-dropback season with at least 200 dropbacks afterward
- Sam Darnold's breakthrough took four seasons after leaving the Jets — a 2024 Minnesota resurgence (14th in EPA/dropback, 80.3 PFF passing grade) turned into a $105 million, three-year Seattle deal
- Mac Jones rebounded in San Francisco in 2025 filling in for Brock Purdy, posting +0.07 EPA/dropback (12th among qualifiers) and a 76.0 PFF passing grade, with adjusted accuracy improving nearly eight percentage points from his Patriots finale
- McCarthy's 2025 profile paired a 96th-percentile big-time throw rate with an eighth-percentile EPA/dropback (-0.15), making him one of only four qualifying QBs since 2015 to combine a 6%+ big-time throw rate with -0.10 or worse EPA/dropback
- Justin Fields, the closest historical comp to McCarthy's profile, improved enough to earn starting looks in Pittsburgh and New York but never produced a top-16 qualifying season through 2025
Why it matters: Of seven recent first-round QBs whose original teams gave up on them by Year 3, only Darnold and Mac Jones produced top-16 EPA seasons afterward — and Darnold needed four years and two other stops before his resurgence. For McCarthy and Richardson, the data says the NFL hands out second chances routinely but second careers almost never, with their reclamation paths diverging based on which specific weakness each must fix.
Ask SkimNews
