Vikings Start Murray Over McCarthy; Richardson Now a Backup
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- J.J. McCarthy is heading into Year 3 with just 10 NFL starts after the Vikings named Kyler Murray their starter over the former No. 10 overall pick.
- Anthony Richardson is battling Riley Leonard for the Colts' backup job behind entrenched starter Daniel Jones, three years after being selected 4th overall.
- Of seven first-round QBs (Rosen, Haskins, Darnold, Wilson, Mac Jones, Fields, Pickett) effectively declared busts by their original teams, five eventually started another game but only Sam Darnold became a franchise QB1 again — his 2024 Minnesota breakthrough (14th in EPA per dropback, 80.3 PFF grade) coming four seasons after leaving the Jets and leading to a $105 million, three-year deal in Seattle.
- Mac Jones posted a +0.07 EPA per dropback (12th among qualifiers) and a 76.0 PFF grade while filling in for Brock Purdy in San Francisco in 2025 — a real statistical rebound but not yet a clear QB1 return.
- McCarthy's 2025 season produced a 96th-percentile big-time throw rate alongside an 8th-percentile EPA per dropback (-0.15) — the highest big-time throw rate among just four QBs from 2015-25 to combine a 6%+ big-time throw rate with EPA per dropback of -0.10 or worse.
Why it matters: Sam Darnold, the only true franchise reclamation in the sample, took four full seasons after leaving the Jets before his 2024 breakthrough earned a $105 million Seattle deal. McCarthy's 96th-percentile big-time throw rate paired with 8th-percentile overall play suggests his path forward depends on eliminating negative plays, not rebuilding from scratch.
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