MLB insiders predict the playoffs: Bold takes, dangerous teams and breakout stars — SkimNews
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- Buster Olney picked the Padres to win their first World Series, citing MLB's best bullpen benefiting from postseason off-days and a three-or-four-starter formula similar to the 2024 Dodgers.
- Jeff Passan tabbed the Red Sox as his AL pennant pick despite their No. 5 seed, noting they have the best AL offense since the All-Star break and lead MLB in fielding independent pitching.
- The Dodgers remain World Series favorites for a three-peat per Alden Gonzalez, but Passan flagged that Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, and Blake Snell are returning from injury without rehab assignments.
- The Brewers have more believers than last year's squad that was swept by the Dodgers, with Jesse Rogers highlighting Jacob Misiorowski (one evaluator speculated he could hit 107 mph in the playoffs) and Logan Henderson atop a deeper rotation.
- The Yankees face split insider opinions without Aaron Judge — one front office executive said they have 'no chance' of a World Series run, while Olney noted their vulnerability against Boston's loaded left-handed pitching.
- The Phillies are tagged as October's most dangerous lower-seeded NL team per Gonzalez, contingent on Jesus Luzardo's health — 'If he's healthy, they're my answer,' said one rival front office executive.
- Breakout candidates include Rays outfielder Victor Mesa Jr., Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers, Padres first baseman Ty France, plus fastball-dominant aces Parker Messick (Cleveland) and Logan Henderson (Milwaukee) who succeed despite average velocity in an era of 94.6 mph heaters.
Why it matters: The insider consensus exposes specific October vulnerabilities — Dodgers returning from injury with no rehab stints, the Yankees relying entirely on Judge, and one GM saying he'd 'take every NL playoff team over every AL playoff team' — reframing the playoff bracket. The Padres and Red Sox emerge as consensus sleeper picks backed by credible metrics (best AL offense since the break, MLB-best fielding independent pitching).
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