SportsLine model flags Likely, Pollard as 2026 Fantasy sleepers — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's computer model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times and released Fantasy football rankings with sleepers, breakouts, and busts ahead of the regular season kicking off in five days.
- De'Von Achane validated the model last year: projected at RB6, the Dolphins back finished RB6 in CBS Sports PPR leagues with 1,838 scrimmage yards (sixth-most in the NFL) and 12 touchdowns, far exceeding his RB12 ADP.
- Isaiah Likely is the model's top tight-end sleeper — he followed coach John Harbaugh from the Ravens to the Giants, has an ADP of 92, and is ranked TE9 ahead of Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce; he became Jaxson Dart's favorite target with Malik Nabers limited by a knee injury in camp.
- Tony Pollard is the model's running-back sleeper, coming off four straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons and a late-2025 surge of 100 yards per game with three total touchdowns over his final five games; the model slots him in the same tier as TreVeyon Henderson and Rico Dowdle despite an ADP of pick 77 (RB27).
- The model's historical track record includes correctly flagging A.J. Brown (2020), Jonathan Taylor's 2021 season, C.J. Stroud's 2024 regression, Daniel Jones's 2025 breakout, Derrick Henry (2019), Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara (2018), and Davante Adams (2017).
- An unnamed wide receiver is ranked a "shocking top-10 option" by the model — ahead of CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown — despite going off the board in the third or fourth round of most drafts.
Why it matters: SportsLine's model has called multiple league-winning breakouts — Achane in 2025, Jonathan Taylor in 2021, Derrick Henry in 2019 — by identifying players available well below their eventual production tier. With drafts closing this weekend, the model's flagged sleepers (Likely ranked TE9 vs. ADP of 92, Pollard tiered with higher-drafted backs despite an RB27 ADP) give fantasy players a late-round blueprint for where consensus valuation is wrong.
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