Bitcoin Tops $65K on US-Iran Deal as ETF Outflows Top
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- Bitcoin rose to $65,860 (up 2.2% in 24 hours, 4% weekly) after Trump's Truth Social posts claiming a "Great Deal" with Iran, authorizing the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and removal of the U.S. naval blockade.
- Pakistan's prime minister independently confirmed the deal before Trump's posts, though investors are unlikely to fully price in a resolution until the Friday signing in Switzerland, XYO co-founder Markus Levin told Decrypt.
- U.S. Bitcoin ETF products have shed over $4.8 billion since May, reflecting what analysts call "genuinely soft institutional demand" that a peace deal alone won't reverse.
- The 25-delta options skew sits at -4% to -5%, meaning traders are still paying a premium for downside protection rather than chasing upside exposure.
- Myriad prediction market users give a 67% chance Bitcoin's next major move drops it to $55,000, while Kalshi users expect a 2026 year-end close of $69,000 — 45% below the $126,080 all-time high set in October 2025.
- Bitcoin's network recorded its 11th-largest downward difficulty adjustment ever, a 10.09% drop at block 953,568, after a 15% June price slide squeezed miner margins, per Galaxy Research.
Why it matters: For crypto investors, the deal-driven rally masks structural weakness: $4.8 billion in ETF outflows since May and a 4-5% negative options skew signal soft institutional demand. Friday's Switzerland signing and Wednesday's Fed meeting will test whether Bitcoin holds $65,000 or retreats toward the $55,000 level prediction markets are pricing in.
