SpaceX Down 19% From Its $135 IPO Price
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- SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history in June at $135 per share, opened at $150, peaked at $225, and trades at $109 as of August 1 — a 19% decline from its IPO price
- Tesla went public on June 29, 2010, fell 18% within its first two months, then recovered to gain 18% by year's end after announcing the Model S for a 2012 launch
- SpaceX is not consistently profitable, and its revenue is not growing as quickly as one might expect for a $1.4 trillion company, with heavy AI investments threatening to push the bottom line deeper into the red
- Starship, SpaceX's fully reusable next-generation rocket designed to handle larger payloads than Falcon 9, recently completed its 13th test flight and stands as a potential catalyst for a rebound
- The author predicts SpaceX's stock will continue dropping over the next year, citing mounting competition in the space industry and a market that is still pricing the company as a pure disruption story without factoring in execution risks
Why it matters: A $1.4 trillion valuation paired with inconsistent profitability and slower-than-expected revenue growth gives investors reason to doubt the disruption premium baked into SpaceX's stock; the author's bearish call hinges on whether Starship's progress can reignite confidence the way the Model S roadmap did for Tesla in 2010.
