Trump's Iran War Whiplash Leaves Iranians in Uncertainty
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- Iranians report coping with deep uncertainty as Trump makes nearly daily fluctuating proclamations on war and negotiations, with some avoiding headlines to protect their mental health as the war nears six months.
- Trump paused a threatened 'massive attack' on Iran and said new talks would begin, though Iran's Foreign Ministry said negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz were in final stages with Oman, not with Washington.
- Iran's rial traded at about 1.91 million per US dollar on Monday, hovering near an all-time low, after strengthening to 1.54 million per dollar in mid-June when the Iran-US deal facilitated by regional mediators was still active.
- The Statistical Center of Iran put inflation at nearly 90% year-on-year for the month ending July 22, while Trump boasted on social media with a diagram claiming he was 'destroying Iran's currency' and noting 'massive inflation.'
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called the June MoU with the US 'the centre of gravity of our foreign relations in the future,' while Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran would not back down from 'principled positions' on Strait of Hormuz control, the nuclear programme, or the 'axis of resistance.'
- A state TV analyst warned the US could attempt assassinations, infrastructure attacks, internal unrest, border clashes, and a ground offensive in southern Iran if war resumes, as state TV urged civilians to remain prepared for a potentially resumed war.
Why it matters: Ordinary Iranians are absorbing the cost of Trump's on-off war theater: the rial near all-time lows at 1.91M per USD and inflation at 90% are the material backdrop for six months of contradictory presidential pronouncements. Pezeshkian's enthusiastic endorsement of the June MoU reveals a real internal split — his government wants a deal, while the Foreign Ministry and hardliners insist on core demands including Strait of Hormuz control and sanctions relief.
