Trump warns Iran ceasefire, Russia‑Ukraine truce ends
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- Trump declared the US‑Iran ceasefire “on massive life support” on May 11 and warned of possible resumption of military action.
- US and Iran reached a two‑week truce on April 7, brokered by Pakistan, but it proved fragile and did not produce a substantive nuclear agreement.
- Russia violated the May 9‑11 Ukraine ceasefire with drone attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure, according to Ukrainian officials.
- University of Edinburgh’s PA‑X Peace Agreements Database finds that ceasefires with longer‑term commitments (e.g., demobilisation, demilitarised zones, external guarantees) tend to suspend violence for longer periods.
Why it matters: Ukraine loses civilian lives and energy infrastructure; Russia's violations erode trust, undermining diplomatic channels and prolonging conflict, which raises humanitarian costs and hampers global energy markets.
