New attacks raise questions about what comes next in the Iran war
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- Trump declared the Iran ceasefire 'over' and said he's 'not sure I want to make a deal,' yet insisted continued attacks don't mean a return to full-scale war — a contradiction analysts like Michael Eisenstadt and Ali Vaez characterized as coercive bargaining rather than genuine escalation.
- The US military carried out new strikes on Iran aimed at 'further degrade[ing] their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,' hours after Trump warned a new round of attacks was coming.
- Mediators from Pakistan, Qatar, and Egypt, backed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi leaders, are running around-the-clock communications to salvage the memorandum of understanding, according to a regional intelligence official involved in the talks.
- Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Tehran's lead negotiator, said the Trump administration repeatedly violated the initial pact's terms, posting on X: 'The era of bullying and extortion is over. We don't fold.'
- Trump resumed threats to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure — including electric plants, desalinization plants, and to 'take over' the Kharg Island oil-production hub — even as US oil futures jumped sharply after the strikes.
- Vice President JD Vance, who led the initial US deal-making with Tehran, said Iran was 'well behaved for about a week' before resuming attacks on the strait, adding: 'If they shoot at ships, we're going to knock the hell out of them.'
- Trump shifted his public characterization of Iran's leaders, calling them 'scum' and 'sick people' this week — a reversal from last month when he described them as 'very rational' and 'nice to deal with.'
Why it matters: Trump's contradictory signaling could undermine the leverage he's trying to build — declaring the ceasefire 'over' frees Iran militarily, which could push oil prices higher and raise gas costs for American consumers less than four months before midterm elections where Republicans are defending House and Senate control.
