BTC price loses 200-week trend line as 2022 repeats: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
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- Bitcoin lost its 200-week simple moving average on weekly close, a level analyst Benjamin Cowen said defined the 2022 bear market's transition to resistance in August before BTC's long-term bottoming phase.
- Trader Rekt Capital said BTC failed to reach his $63,220 weekly-close target, positioning for further downside within a $58,000–$66,000 range.
- Fed minutes from July's meeting—where officials posted the deepest split since 1970—are due Wednesday, with CME FedWatch showing ~70% odds of holding rates at 3.50–3.75%, up from 42% a month ago.
- Japan's Q2 GDP missed expectations at 0.3% QoQ and 1.1% YoY (vs. expected 0.5% and 2.0%), including the first drop in private consumption in eight quarters, as the 10-year JGB yield hit 2.93%—its highest since 1996.
- Glassnode flagged a divergence: the S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 7,816 on Aug. 7 amid record-low consumer sentiment, while Bitcoin is being left out of the equity-driven capital rotation.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $267.2 million last week, with just one of five trading days finishing with net inflows—a combined $7.8 million.
- Binance's whale ratio reached 0.71 on Aug. 10 (highest since early March), with BTC reserves rising 2.57% month-to-date to 674,332 BTC—highest since November 2025.
Why it matters: With $267M in weekly ETF outflows and a 200-week SMA break echoing 2022, Bitcoin is being sidelined as the S&P 500 hits all-time highs. Wednesday's Fed minutes—drawn from the July meeting's deepest FOMC split since 1970—could deepen the divergence if officials lean hawkish.
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