Bitcoin holds $61K after US jobs data report, AI sector weakness: Did BTC bottom?
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- Bitcoin reclaimed $61,000 after June US non-farm payrolls came in at just 57,000 versus the 113,000 expected, with April and May data revised downward by a combined 74,000 jobs.
- US Federal Reserve rate-hike odds for September dropped to 54% from 64% via the CME FedWatch tool, as weak labor data eased inflation concerns and opened the door to accelerated liquidity injection.
- Nasdaq 100 futures erased three days of gains while AI chipmakers — SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials — each dropped 9% or more intraday, reinforcing the capital-rotation narrative from tech into Bitcoin and gold.
- CryptoQuant analyst gaah_im reported that Bitcoin's realized profit-to-loss ratio has hit its lowest level since 2022, with net supply in profit turning negative — a pattern that has historically marked cycle bottoms with 'extreme precision.'
- Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) added pressure despite 8% net leverage and $56.8 billion in enterprise value, as holders faced dilution from accelerated MSTR share issuance used to buy back debt and cover preferred-stock dividends.
- WTI crude stabilized below $70 after Qatar cited 'positive progress' in US-Iran talks, while gold recovered part of its 8% two-week drop — both signaling expectations of looser monetary policy.
- Fed balance sheet assets stagnated at $6.73 trillion even though its mandate permits $40 billion in monthly Treasury and bond purchases, leaving significant room for stimulus that could benefit scarce assets.
Why it matters: The combination of a jobs market printing less than half its expected number, a stagnant $6.73 trillion Fed balance sheet with $40B/month in unused purchase authority, and onchain profit-loss signals at their lowest since 2022 sets up the textbook conditions for a Bitcoin recovery toward $70,000 — but Strategy's ongoing share dilution ($56.8B enterprise value, 8% net leverage) remains a structural drag on MSTR-linked BTC sentiment.
