Bitcoin Still in Death Cross as Jobs Miss Cuts Rate-Hike Odds
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- Bitcoin trades at $64,938, up 1.06% on the session, but remains compressed below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after sliding from a mid-May peak near $80,000 to a July low around $58,000.
- The U.S. labor market shed 23,000 jobs in July — the first net loss since the pandemic-era recovery — missing the 95,000 gain economists had expected, with June's gain revised down to 20,000 from 57,000 and May nearly halved.
- CME FedWatch cut the odds of a September rate hike to 40% from 55% as Treasury yields fell and the dollar dropped 0.5% on the weaker jobs data, removing a key macro headwind for risk assets.
- Bitcoin's 50-day EMA sits below the 200-day EMA in a death cross, with the RSI at 54.6 — neutral momentum, enough to keep price in a sideways coil but not enough to drive a breakout through resistance.
- Traders on Myriad are pricing in nearly 65% odds that Bitcoin revisits $55,000 before any recovery toward $84,000, with those odds barely moving over the past week.
- The key technical levels are $66,000 resistance overhead, which a daily close above would open a run at the $72,000 cloud top, and $60,000 support below, which a break under would target the July low at $58,000.
Why it matters: The jobs miss gave Bitcoin the macro cover to rally — a softer Fed and weaker dollar — but the chart says it hasn't earned it, with price failing to reclaim the 50-day EMA through the entire consolidation. A break below the $60,000 floor reopens the spring downtrend to the July low of $58,000, while Myriad traders give 65% odds BTC hits $55K first before any push toward $84,000.
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