Bitcoin Rally Fades—Where Does Price Go Next?
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- Bitcoin bounced to $65,000 but the rally was short-lived, with the price at $64,261, down 0.92% on the day and pinned just under the $64,568 EMA50 floor.
- Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July — the first net loss since the pandemic-era recovery and a sharp miss against the 95,000-gain economists expected — pulling Treasury yields lower but failing to sustain a Bitcoin rally.
- Bitcoin's chart structure still shows a death cross (50-day EMA below the 200-day MA), an RSI reading of 50 (dead neutral), ADX at 10.6 (directionless), and a failed bounce off the $62,216 swing low that stalled at the EMA50.
- Myriad prediction-market traders price a drop to $55,000 at 64.6% odds versus 35.4% for a run to $84,000, with the BTC August Highs book showing odds falling sharply above the already-resolved $65,000 level.
- The BTC August Lows market prices a dip to $60,000 at 35% odds, but a deeper breakdown to $55,000 sits at just 8% and $52,500 at 4%, suggesting traders fear a wobble more than a collapse.
- Since the May peak near $80,000, Bitcoin has logged lower highs and lower lows through June and July, forming a volatile, downward-sloping base that the Squeeze Momentum Indicator has been loading for 22 days.
Why it matters: Bitcoin's inability to hold a bounce despite the strongest macro tailwind in weeks — a negative jobs print that pulled Treasury yields lower and should have fed a risk-on move — leaves the technicals in control. With Myriad pricing 64.6% odds of a drop to $55,000 but only 8% odds of breaking $55,000, the $62,216 swing low is the line traders are actually watching; a close below it opens $60,000 and $58,000 next.
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