Bitcoin Rally Fades—Where Does Price Go Next? — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin briefly tapped $65,000 after July's 23,000-job decline — the first net loss since the pandemic recovery and a sharp miss against the 95,000 gain economists expected — but is now trading at $64,261, down 0.92% on the day and pinned just under the $64,568 floor
- A death cross remains active (50-day EMA trading below the 200-day MA), and Bitcoin failed to close above the EMA50 ceiling; the article describes the failed bounce as looking "exactly like what bull traps are supposed to look like"
- Technical indicators are stalled: RSI at neutral 50, ADX at 10.6 (directionless chop), and the Squeeze Momentum Indicator has been loading for 22 days with bearish directional indicators (DI- above DI+) tilting the resolution toward further downside
- Myriad prediction markets price a drop to $55K at 64.6% odds against 35.4% for a run to $84K, while August highs above $65K carry rapidly fading odds — $67,500 at 48%, $70,000 at 25%, $72,500 at 11%, $75,000 at 5%
- The bear case triggers on losing the $62,216 swing low, which opens $60,000 and the $58,000 shelf; the bull case requires daily closes above both the $64,568 golden zone and the EMA500 that capped the last bounce to challenge the $66,921 swing high
Why it matters: The weakest U.S. jobs print since the pandemic recovery is a classic risk-on catalyst tied to Federal Reserve rate-cut bets, yet Bitcoin couldn't reclaim its 50-day moving average — signaling that crypto is absorbing macro tailwinds with diminishing returns and leaving short-term traders exposed to a break below $62,216 toward $58,000.
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