Why the Bitcoin Rally Seems More Like a Bull Trap
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- Bitcoin briefly rallied to $66,921 but failed at resistance and fell back to $63,422, with the daily charts showing every major indicator in bearish territory and the bounce looking like a textbook bull trap
- South Korea's KOSPI index fell more than 8% at the open and triggered a circuit breaker, fueling a risk-off shockwave that pushed Bitcoin to $62,684 in early trading
- Over $670 million in crypto liquidations hit the market in 24 hours, with $533 million coming from longs as traders bet on a rally that did not materialize
- Technical signals all lean bearish, including a months-active death cross (50 EMA below 200 EMA), RSI at 46.5 below the 50 line, and a Squeeze Momentum Indicator that has been loading for nine bars
- On the Myriad prediction market, 65.7% of traders are betting Bitcoin hits $55,000 before $84,000 — a near-complete reversal from the March split before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first hawkish presser
- The FOMC convenes today and tomorrow with a rate hold at 3.50–3.75% widely expected and Warsh's press conference due July 29, with traders deleveraging rather than holding through the event
Why it matters: With $533 million in long-side liquidations inside 24 hours and prediction-market odds at 65.7% for $55,000 Bitcoin, leveraged crypto traders face forced further de-risking unless Warsh's July 29 press conference delivers an unambiguously dovish surprise — an outcome the article flags as the thin remaining bull case.
