Cluster of headwinds weigh on bitcoin. XRP teeters near $1

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- The Clarity Act has stalled in the Senate, and the SEC is reportedly set to further delay its long-anticipated "innovation exemption" rule for trading tokenized securities, after concerns from both the White House and Wall Street over the proposal's legal footing.
- The SEC abruptly postponed Friday's planned open meeting on its parallel "Reg Crypto" effort to create fundraising rules for token projects, offering no new date.
- MSCI opened a consultation proposing to remove non-operating companies from its equity indices, naming bitcoin treasury holders Strategy and Metaplanet among those targeted for potential deletion.
- Spot bitcoin ETFs shed $333 million in net outflows so far this week, reversing last week's $853 million in inflows; year-to-date, investors have yanked over $4 billion from these funds.
- A $25 billion auction of the U.S. 30-year Treasury note on Thursday drew yields as high as 5.22% — a level some dealers called the highest since 2001 — raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin.
- XRP is teetering near the $1 support level; a breach could prompt selling from holders who accumulated coins below this threshold in late 2024.
- Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21shares, countered that crypto outperformed the S&P 500 by 7.5 percentage points and the Nasdaq-100 by 14.2 percentage points in July, projecting a potential Q4 rally toward $100,000 bitcoin, $3,000 ether, $70 HYPE, and $110 SOL.
Why it matters: With over $4 billion already pulled from bitcoin ETFs year-to-date and the 30-year yield hitting levels not seen since 2001, the cost-of-capital squeeze on non-yielding assets is tightening precisely as U.S. regulatory momentum stalls — putting Strategy and Metaplanet at compounded risk of MSCI index deletion on top of price pressure.
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