SportsLine Model Calls Top 2026 Fantasy Football Busts — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model correctly predicted that Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin would fall well short of his top-50 ADP last season; McLaurin finished with career lows of 582 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.
- The same model has a documented track record calling sleepers like Derrick Henry (2019), Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara (2018), Davante Adams (2017), and correctly predicted C.J. Stroud's 2024 step-back.
- Houston Texans running back David Montgomery is flagged as a 2026 bust; despite an ADP of pick No. 52, SportsLine ranks him in the same tier as later-round backs Jaylen Warren and 10th-rounder Kenneth Gainwell, citing a projected snap split with rookie Woody Marks.
- Buffalo Bills running back James Cook is another bust call: he's going at ADP No. 9 overall as the fifth RB off the board, but the model ranks him RB No. 10 behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, pointing to elevated fumble rate and Josh Allen as a touchdown vulture.
- The model is also fading one of the first six wide receivers off 2026 draft boards, ranking him barely inside the top 10 and calling him one of the biggest league-wide busts.
- The 2026 NFL regular season begins roughly 48 hours after publication; the CBS PPR ADP is led by Jahmyr Gibbs (1.09) and Bijan Robinson (2.09), with Ja'Marr Chase at No. 3.
- SportsLine simulated the entire 2026 NFL season 10,000 times to produce its rankings, sleepers, breakouts and busts.
Why it matters: With the 2026 regular season kicking off in roughly 48 hours, fantasy drafters targeting Montgomery in rounds 4-5 or Cook inside the top 10 risk paying top-50 production prices for players the model projects to deliver mid-round or worse output. Montgomery's snap competition with Marks and Cook's fumble-plus-Allen-vulturing profile are the specific red flags — the same kind of warning that helped managers sidestep McLaurin's career-low 2025.
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