Model: Montgomery, Cook Are 2026 Fantasy Football Busts — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's projection model, which correctly predicted Terry McLaurin's collapse to career lows (582 receiving yards, 3 TDs) after a 1,100-yard, 13-TD 2024, has now identified its 2026 Fantasy football busts and riskiest picks
- David Montgomery (Texans RB) is flagged as a bust after leaving Detroit's high-volume TD offense; the model ranks him alongside 10th-rounder Kenneth Gainwell despite an ADP around pick No. 52, noting he'll split snaps with rookie Woody Marks (900+ scrimmage yards in 2025)
- James Cook (Bills RB) is labeled a bust despite an ADP around No. 9 overall and being the fifth RB off the board — the model ranks him RB10, behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, citing an elevated 2025 fumble rate and Josh Allen as a touchdown vulture
- SportsLine ran 10,000 NFL season simulations to generate its 2026 rankings, sleepers, breakouts, and busts, with the full cheat sheets gated behind its site
- Top 2026 PPR ADP (via CBS) lists Jahmyr Gibbs (1.09), Bijan Robinson (2.09), Ja'Marr Chase (4.02), Puka Nacua (5.18), Jonathan Taylor (5.37), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6.37), Christian McCaffrey (7.76), Amon-Ra St. Brown (8.27), James Cook (9.06), and Chase Brown (11.93) as the first ten names off the board
- The model is also fading one of the first six wide receivers drafted — a player it ranks barely inside the top 10 — with the identity kept behind SportsLine's paywall
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters targeting Montgomery in rounds 4-5 or Cook in the 1st-2nd are paying premium ADP prices for backs the model slots as mid-to-late round values. With kickoff roughly 48 hours out and final drafts concentrated this weekend, league managers who trust consensus ADP over the model's projections risk burning early-round capital on Cook (efficiency flags) and Montgomery (workload split) before those concerns show up in box scores.
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