Wealthsimple launches Kalshi-powered prediction market
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- Wealthsimple is launching "Wealthsimple Predict" this summer, a standalone app giving Canadian users access to nearly 4,000 contracts from Kalshi — the largest U.S. prediction market — though no launch date was given and the app will carry no Kalshi branding.
- Wealthsimple will restrict contracts to CIRO-approved categories — economic indicators, financial markets, and climate events — and is barred from offering sports or election contracts, the two most popular Kalshi categories in the U.S.; only contracts with 30+ day terms to maturity qualify.
- Wealthsimple received CIRO approval in March to offer forecast contracts, making it the second firm to do so after Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., which received approval in 2025, and the app will require a new account and KYC verification even from existing Wealthsimple clients.
- Kalshi processed US$17.9-billion in trading volume in May alone, raised US$1-billion last month in a Coatue Management-led round valuing it at US$22-billion (roughly double its December valuation), and is regulated by the U.S. CFTC — a status Wealthsimple's VP of product Swapnil Parikh cited as the reason for choosing the partner.
- Kalshi's chief rival Polymarket remains banned in Ontario with a large offshore platform, though some Canadians access it via VPNs, and Kalshi plans anti-insider-trading measures including requiring users to disclose their employer.
- U.S. regulators and lawmakers continue to push back: a pair of senators introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act in March to bar sports-related contracts, while Canada's 2017 binary options ban still casts a long shadow even though it wasn't designed with modern prediction markets in mind.
Why it matters: Wealthsimple is the first major Canadian retail brokerage to route clients into a CFTC-regulated prediction exchange, but the CIRO rulebook strips out the two most popular U.S. categories — sports and elections — leaving Canadians to wager on economic, financial, and climate events only. With Kalshi clearing US$17.9-billion in May and Canadian regulators still calibrating, Wealthsimple's launch is a real test of whether retail Canadian demand can fill a narrowed product set.
