Model Picks Under in No. 2 Georgia vs. Arkansas — SkimNews
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- Georgia Bulldogs sit at No. 2 and 2-0 in 2026 behind quarterback Gunner Stockton, traveling to Fayetteville for the SEC opener with a defense that has allowed just 23 combined points to Tennessee State and Western Kentucky.
- Arkansas Razorbacks enter at 1-1 after a 31-14 win over North Alabama and a 43-10 loss at No. 20 Utah, with quarterback KJ Jackson still working to find consistency against tougher competition.
- Georgia is a 24.5-point favorite in the latest odds, with the over/under sitting at 54.5 — up two points from the opener — and kickoff set for noon ET.
- SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since 2024, projects 52 combined points and hits the Under in 54% of simulations at -104.
- Arkansas's offense managed only 10 points in last week's lopsided loss at Utah, and both of the Razorbacks' first two games have gone Under the total, giving the model little reason to expect a high-scoring environment.
- SportsLine also has a spread pick hitting well over 50% of simulations, but that specific side is locked behind the paywall at SportsLine.
Why it matters: For bettors tracking the SportsLine model, its 33-21 money-line run gives the Under 54.5 pick in this Georgia-Arkansas SEC opener credibility — Georgia's dominant defense (23 points allowed in two games) and Arkansas's offensive struggles (10 points at Utah) both point toward a lower-scoring game than the market's 54.5 total implies.
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