Fear of Being Left Behind: Taiwanese Concerns After the Trump–Xi Summit
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- An INDSR-commissioned survey of 1,127 Taiwanese adults (May 28–31, 2026; ±2.92% margin of error) found 51% feared their interests could be overlooked or sacrificed after the Trump–Xi summit, vs. 29% who believed Taiwan would be properly considered.
- Taiwanese confidence that the U.S. would definitely or probably intervene militarily in a cross-strait conflict fell 10 points — from 54% in March 2026 to 44% after the May summit.
- The share of respondents expecting Washington would probably or definitely not intervene rose from 37% to 42% over the same two months, breaking a stable pattern tracked by INDSR since 2021.
- Even after the drop, respondents leaning toward U.S. intervention (44%) still edged out those dismissing it (42%), suggesting the shift reflects security uncertainty rather than outright anti-American sentiment.
- The report frames Taiwan's structural position as 'the subject of discussion rather than a participant' in great-power diplomacy, a dynamic that amplifies summit-related anxiety regardless of diplomatic outcomes.
Why it matters: The 10-point collapse in expected U.S. military intervention — from 54% to 44% in two months — represents a measurable erosion of Taiwanese confidence in the U.S. security umbrella, breaking a stable pattern INDSR has tracked since 2021. With 51% now believing Taiwan could be sacrificed, the summit gave Taipei a public-opinion cost its leaders can't dismiss.
