Iraq sovereignty test as US coalition exit deadline arrives — SkimNews
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- Iraq's armed forces confirmed to state media that September 30 will end the mission of the US-led international military coalition, with Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir al-Shammari calling it the fixed and final date for completing the departure of coalition forces.
- The 2024 Baghdad-Washington agreement requires removing US Patriot air defense systems from Erbil — platforms that have been intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles and drones targeting the Kurdish region during the ongoing war on Iran.
- PM Ali al-Zaidi set a parallel deadline for nonstate armed groups, including Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kataib Hezbollah, to disarm or face terrorism charges, with key defense and interior ministry positions still vacant.
- University of Baghdad analyst Iyad al-Anbar called the withdrawal 'mostly symbolic,' noting US forces have already vacated Camp Victory, support bases, and the Green Zone and are concentrated in Harir base in Erbil.
- Former US diplomat Marlin Hardinger said Washington will retain residual counterterrorism and intelligence efforts around the US embassy and consulate while pivoting under President Donald Trump toward economic and developmental engagement with Iraq.
- University of Jordan's Hassan al-Barari warned that without Patriot batteries, the Iraqi state is 'not currently capable' of defending its skies against Iranian missiles, asking who will fill the security gap if drones and missiles keep coming.
- Iraq's sovereignty trajectory hinges on al-Zaidi's ability to restrict weapons to the state, per analysts, with al-Barari warning that failure could see Iraq 'fall completely under absolute Iranian influence' in a scenario Washington is trying to avoid.
Why it matters: Iraq loses its sole air defense against Iranian missiles the same day it must begin disarming nonstate militias — with both defense and interior ministries still leaderless. Al-Barari explicitly warned Iraq cannot currently intercept Iranian drones and missiles without the Patriots, and that a failed disarmament drive could deliver the country into 'absolute Iranian influence,' the very outcome Washington says it wants to prevent.
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