Banks are set to report this week. Here's what the options market expects — SkimNews
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- Goldman Sachs leads four big banks reporting Tuesday Oct 13, with options pricing a 2.84% post-earnings move versus its 2% eight-quarter average; the stock rallied 9% after July's Q2 report, its biggest post-earnings jump since January 2019.
- JPMorgan options price a 2.5% move in line with its 2.22% eight-quarter average; its 2.5% July move higher was its first positive reaction since April 2025.
- Wells Fargo enters down 10% year-to-date and has missed its last three reports including a 5% April drop, with options implying a 3.5% move versus its 5.6% average.
- Citigroup is the group's best performer at up 11% on the year, with options pricing a 3% move versus its 3.8% average; last quarter it fell 5.3% against a 3.5% implied move.
- Bank of America could move into positive year-to-date territory with a Wednesday post-earnings gain that would mark its third straight win; options price a 2.9% move versus its 1.8% average.
- Morgan Stanley and BlackRock both eye fifth straight post-earnings wins on Wednesday; Morgan Stanley has only dropped once in eight quarters, while BlackRock jumped nearly 7% after July's report.
- Financials rank as the third-worst performing S&P 500 sector in 2026 despite being flat on the year, with the index near all-time highs heading into the reports.
Why it matters: This week's reports are the first major earnings test with the S&P 500 near all-time highs, so any downside surprise — like Wells Fargo's potential fourth straight miss or Citigroup repeating its 5.3% downside break — could ripple into the broader tape. Conversely, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock extending winning streaks to five straight would reinforce the financials trade into year-end.
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