Big Banks Report: What the Options Market Is Pricing — SkimNews
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- Seven big banks report earnings this week — Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Tuesday Oct. 13, followed by Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock on Wednesday Oct. 14 — with the S&P 500 near all-time highs framing the results as a potential significant market catalyst.
- Financials rank as the third-worst performing S&P 500 sector in 2026 despite being flat on the year, with the options market weighing the impact of higher rates and a stretched consumer.
- Goldman Sachs options imply a 2.84% post-earnings move Tuesday, above its 2% eight-quarter average; its Q2 report in July sparked a 9% rally — the stock's largest post-earnings move since January 2019.
- JPMorgan options imply a 2.5% move, in line with its 2.22% eight-quarter average; its 2.5% gain in July was its first positive post-earnings reaction since April 2025, when it jumped 4%.
- Citigroup is up 11% YTD — the best performance among the week's names — though options imply just a 3% move against its 3.8% average; last quarter the stock fell 5.3% against a 3.5% implied move.
- Wells Fargo is down 10% YTD and has dropped after each of its last three earnings reports, including a 5% slide in April, with options pricing in a 3.5% move against its 5.6% eight-quarter average.
- Bank of America options imply a 2.9% move Wednesday, well above its 1.8% eight-quarter average, with a positive move marking its third-straight post-earnings win; Morgan Stanley has moved lower just once in its last eight reported quarters, and BlackRock has posted four straight post-earnings wins including a nearly 7% July jump — MS and BlackRock options imply 3% and 3.3% moves versus 4.3% and 4.4% averages.
Why it matters: With the S&P 500 near all-time highs, Tuesday's reports from Goldman, JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are positioned as the week's significant market catalyst — Wells Fargo's 10% YTD slide and three straight post-earnings drops make it the standout single-name risk in a week otherwise priced for muted moves.
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