Broncos vs. Seahawks prediction, odds, time: 'Thursday Night Football' picks by advanced model — SkimNews
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- Seattle Seahawks are 2.5-point road favorites over the Denver Broncos with a 40.5 over/under (down from 42.5) for Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High.
- The SportsLine model, which simulated the game 10,000 times and is on a 57-46 run on top-rated picks since 2024, projects 40 combined points and is backing the Under 40.5, a number the Under has hit in seven of Denver's last 10 games and four of five this season.
- Denver will play without cornerback Pat Surtain II (ankle) and safety Talanoa Hufanga (ankle), while Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ankle) was a full Wednesday practice participant with no injury designation.
- Seattle's defense ranks second in the NFL at 251.2 yards allowed per game and ninth in points allowed at 21 per game, while Denver averages 22.2 points per game (14th) behind an inconsistent Bo Nix.
- Sam Darnold passed for just 195 yards with two interceptions in Seattle's 32-29 loss at San Francisco, while Nix went 16-of-27 for 123 yards and one touchdown in Denver's 23-17 win over the Chargers.
- Seattle has won the last two head-to-head meetings and four of the last five, with Denver entering 2-0 at home this season and Seattle 1-1 on the road.
Why it matters: Denver's depleted secondary, missing All-Pro Pat Surtain II, faces a top-2 Seattle defense that allows just 21 points per game — the model sees a low-scoring grind with the Under 40.5 hitting 53% of the time. For bettors following SportsLine's 57-46 top-rated run since 2024, that's the specific market edge the simulation is flagging.
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