Fantasy football rankings 2026: Breakouts per the model that called Tetairoa McMillan's huge year
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- Omarion Hampton is the model's top breakout pick at RB, projected ahead of Kyren Williams and Javonte Williams despite those two carrying earlier ADPs; the model cites Hampton's durable UNC track record plus the returns of Pro Bowl tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater and the addition of center Tyler Biadasz after Hampton finished RB35 in PPR leagues as a rookie with just nine games played.
- Luther Burden III is flagged as a top-30 WR in the model with an ADP of 55; with D.J. Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus gone, Burden becomes at worst Chicago's No. 2 receiver after ranking third among NFL WRs in yards after catch per reception (7.1) and fourth in passer rating when targeted (123.1) as a rookie.
- SportsLine's model also ranks an unnamed young tight end as a top-8 fantasy option ahead of Travis Kelce and George Kittle, with that identity gated behind a SportsLine visit.
- The model simulated the NFL season 10,000 times and has a track record of past calls including Tetairoa McMillan (2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year with 70 catches, 1,014 yards, 7 TDs), A.J. Brown (2020 sleeper), Jonathan Taylor (2021), C.J. Stroud's 2024 step back, Daniel Jones (2025), Derrick Henry (2019), Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara (2018), and Davante Adams (2017).
- Top 2026 ADP (PPR, CBS): Jahmyr Gibbs (1.50), Bijan Robinson (1.79), Ja'Marr Chase (4.17), Puka Nacua (4.29), Jonathan Taylor (5.67), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6.33), Christian McCaffrey (7.00), Amon-Ra St. Brown (9.04), De'Von Achane (10.96), James Cook (11.79).
- The article notes that identifying breakouts isn't limited to rookies, with players on former teams of Mike Evans, Kenneth Walker III, and A.J. Brown also flagged as candidates to outperform their 2026 ADPs.
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters weighing ADP against projections get a concrete edge: the model wants Hampton ahead of backs being picked 10+ spots earlier and Burden inside the top 30 at WR versus an ADP of 55, giving cheap-target draft strategies a quantitative anchor rather than gut calls. The article explicitly contrasts the model's top-8 TE ranking against consensus darlings Kelce and Kittle, meaning the biggest potential value gaps are at the edges of positions, not at the top of the board.
