Bitcoin slips near $63,500 as traders look past CPI to Fed’s next tests
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- Bitcoin slipped to roughly $63,500 on Thursday, down over 0.5% on the day and nearly 2% on the week, as a forecast-matching U.S. inflation print failed to catalyze a crypto rally.
- July CPI rose 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually on the headline, with core up 0.2% monthly and easing to 2.5% — data that trimmed September Fed rate-hike odds from 46% to 38% in futures markets.
- Altcoins broadly declined: Dogecoin fell ~3% to 7 cents, XRP dropped over 1% to $1 (down ~5% on the week), BNB slipped over 1% to $610, Solana dipped under 1% to $76, and Ether eased marginally to $1,880.
- CF Benchmarks' Gabe Selby said an in-line report 'removes a tail risk' but requires a genuine surprise to act as a catalyst, noting Bitcoin averages 3.25% gains across the three past CPI releases that came in below expectations.
- Global equities outperformed crypto, with MSCI Asia Pacific up nearly 1% and Korea's Kospi rallying almost 4% into a technical bull market (up 22% in 10 days), though Cisco fell over 4% after hours on weak earnings.
- Brent crude snapped a six-day gaining streak after easing from $90 a barrel, following comments from IRGC adviser General Mohammad Reza Naqdi that Iran was preparing to carry out operations on U.S. soil under a new military doctrine.
- Upcoming catalysts include the Jackson Hole central bankers' gathering later this month, the September 4 jobs report, and the September 11 inflation release.
Why it matters: An in-line CPI report did exactly what Fed-watchers expected — nothing dramatic — which tells you the market still hasn't been given permission to bid crypto aggressively. With September rate-hike odds now sitting at just 38% and shelter, energy, and tariff-base-effect dynamics all pointing in the Fed's favor, traders are essentially hostage to the next data prints: Jackson Hole, September 4 jobs, and September 11 CPI will determine whether Bitcoin can break its current range.
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