Bitcoin slips to $63,500 as in-line CPI offers no rally
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- Bitcoin slipped to approximately $63,500, down 0.5% on the day and nearly 2% on the week, after the in-line CPI report failed to spark a broad crypto rally, with most major tokens including Dogecoin, XRP, BNB, Solana, and ether all declining
- July CPI matched forecasts, with headline inflation rising 0.1% monthly and 3.4% year-over-year; core inflation rose 0.2% monthly, easing to 2.5% on shelter costs up just 0.1% and energy down 1.5%
- Futures markets trimmed the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 38% from 46% before the release, with gold gaining 1.3% and ether up just over 1% in the immediate aftermath
- Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk that bitcoin has gained an average of 3.25% across three prior instances in the last nine CPI releases when inflation undershot expectations — noting an in-line print 'remove[s] a tail risk' but requires a genuine surprise to become a catalyst
- The next major catalysts are the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers later this month, the September 4 jobs report, and the September 11 inflation release
- Global equities outperformed crypto: MSCI's Asia Pacific index rose nearly 1%, Korea's Kospi rallied almost 4% into a technical bull market (up 22% in 10 days), while Cisco fell over 4% after hours on underwhelming earnings and Cerebras Systems dropped 17%
- Brent crude snapped a six-day rally after IRGC adviser General Mohammad Reza Naqdi said Iran was preparing to carry out operations on U.S. soil under a new military doctrine, easing oil from $90 a barrel
Why it matters: Selby's historical data shows Bitcoin averages a 3.25% gain only when CPI surprises lower — an in-line print removes a tail risk but offers no directional trigger, putting the onus on the September 4 jobs report and September 11 CPI to either confirm the Fed can stay patient or force a policy rethink that moves the market.
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