Ranking QB changes by expected impact: Can Kyler Murray get Vikings back to the playoffs?
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- Kyler Murray tops the 2026 QB-change impact ranking, with CBS Sports projecting 3,400 passing yards, 27 TDs and 21 INTs for the former No. 1 overall pick as he joins the Vikings
- The Las Vegas Raiders signed 37-year-old Kirk Cousins in free agency and drafted Fernando Mendoza No. 1 overall, making Mendoza just the fourth Heisman Trophy and national championship winner selected first in the Common Draft Era (after Joe Burrow, Jameis Winston and Cam Newton)
- Atlanta Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa after Miami absorbed an NFL-record $99 million dead cap hit to cut him; Tagovailoa owns 44 wins as a Dolphin (most since Dan Marino retired) but threw a career-high 15 interceptions last season
- Geno Smith moves to the New York Jets after going 2-13 with the Raiders, where he led the NFL with 55 sacks taken and 17 interceptions; the Jets' rebuilt line (Olu Fashanu, Armand Membou) and Garrett Wilson give him a better supporting cast
- Malik Willis takes over in Miami, where CBS Sports notes the Dolphins carry the second-longest Super Bowl odds; in his only 2025 start for Green Bay, Willis became the first QB ever to complete 85% of passes while averaging 13 yards per attempt and rushing for 60 yards
- The Minnesota Vikings are framed as a playoff-or-bust team with Murray joining Justin Jefferson, the third player ever to open a career with six straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons
Why it matters: Five franchises are staking their 2026 trajectories on new quarterbacks, and the headliner is the Vikings betting Murray's dual-threat ceiling outweighs the 30 games he missed over the past five seasons — a boom-or-bust call reflected in CBS's projection of 21 interceptions. Atlanta's decision to absorb Miami's $99 million dead cap hit rather than stick with a third-ACL-recovery Michael Penix Jr. shows how far franchises will go to escape their QB problems.
