Trump Has No Military Path to Reopen Hormuz
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- Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been striking sites in every Gulf state at scale this week, severely damaging many US military bases despite heavy US bombardments since the war began, with most of Iran's missile sites along the strait operational again.
- The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil and gas daily along with large supplies of sulphur, ammonia, urea and helium; insurers like Lloyd's of London refuse to cover transits or charge nonviable premiums while the war continues.
- The US military campaign has already cost more than $100 billion, and analysts cited in the article warn that Iran — emboldened by national mourning for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — could withstand a naval blockade and bombardments for many more months.
- Trump has long threatened to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure including electric and desalination plants, a move Barton warns could trigger retaliation against the 400 desalination plants Gulf states depend on for drinking water.
- The Houthis could be pressured by the Iranian regime to escalate from blocking Israeli ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (10% of global trade) to attacking all vessels, though they have held off due to a Saudi detente now shaken by an airport attack this week.
- Iran's geography — nearly four times the size of Iraq — makes any ground campaign vastly larger than the 2003 Iraq invasion, and the source notes America has not won a major war in the past 80 years.
Why it matters: Trump's Iran bind forces an unpalatable choice: accept Iranian leverage over a strait carrying 20% of global oil and gas, or escalate toward the 400 desalination plants Gulf states depend on for drinking water — a path the source says carries a small but non-negligible risk of US tactical nuclear deployment.
