Trump Has No Winning Hand Against Iran's Strait Grip
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- Trump's bombing campaign resumed this week against Iran to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz, yet most Iranian missile sites along the waterway are operational again and the IRGC can still threaten commercial traffic with drones or missile strikes at will.
- IRGC leverage extends beyond the strait to strikes on every Gulf state, with many US military bases across the region severely damaged this week, while shipping insurers including Lloyd's of London refuse or charge nonviable premiums for transits.
- The economic stakes are concentrated in geography: about 20% of the world's oil and gas plus large supplies of sulphur, ammonia, urea and helium transit the Strait of Hormuz daily, and roughly 10% of global trade passes the Bab el-Mandeb at the southern end of the Red Sea.
- War costs have already topped US$100 billion in US military operations, with analysts warning hardliners in Tehran—emboldened by national mourning for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—could withstand bombardment and a naval blockade for many more months.
- Iranian retaliation options include striking the roughly 400 desalination plants Gulf states depend on for drinking water and pressuring the Houthis to escalate at Bab el-Mandeb, a step the Houthis have held off partly because of a detente with Saudi Arabia now shaken by an airport attack this week the Houthis blamed on Riyadh.
- A ground campaign would require a vastly larger force than the Iraq coalition, the article notes, since Iran is nearly four times the size of Iraq, and modern drone warfare has given Iran's industrial military capacity a more even match than expected against US forces.
- The author's bottom line: with no military pathway to reopening the strait, allowing Iran to retain a new level of control there would establish a terrible precedent but might be the least-worst outcome available.
Why it matters: For Iran, retaining new control of the Strait would set a precedent that even the world's most powerful military cannot reverse with airpower alone; for the US, the $100 billion already spent and the inability of shipping insurers to underwrite the route mean every additional week of war burns money without loosening Tehran's grip on 20% of global oil flows.
