SpaceX Surges 15.8% Past Lockup, Earnings Fears
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- SpaceX (SPCX) stock jumped 15.8% on Friday for its best day ever, finishing the week up nearly 23% at its highest close since July 15, 2026
- SpaceX's Q2 earnings topped estimates on revenue and adjusted EBITDA, but the stock fell 13.6% on Wednesday to a new all-time closing low as investors fixated on AI capex ballooning to $15.8 billion from $7.7 billion in Q1
- Thursday's lockup expiration made 911.5 million shares eligible to trade—43% more than the 638.9 million shares from SpaceX's June IPO—more than doubling the public float from 4.9% to 11.8% of shares outstanding
- SpaceX defied conventional unlock dynamics, closing up 6.1% on Thursday despite the new supply hitting a stock already trading below its IPO price
- Morningstar's Nicolas Owens argued the recent slump had already priced in the dilution, while JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth called the unlock "the largest of many over the next several months"
- Bank of America's Ron Epstein framed the unlock as a near-term technical drag that will lift as the supply works through; eight more lockup tranches remain to be released
Why it matters: SpaceX cleared the largest share unlock in its trading history without a price collapse—remarkable given the stock entered Thursday already below its IPO level. With eight more tranches of locked shares still to be released over coming months and AI capex running at a $15.8 billion quarterly run rate, continued earnings beats will be required to absorb the remaining supply without renewed pressure on shares that just ripped to their highest close in nearly a month.
