Trump: Iran war ending soon; Tehran denies direct talks
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- Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Thursday the war with Iran is 'going to end pretty soon' because 'they can't go much longer,' claiming negotiations with Tehran are going fine.
- Iran has denied holding direct talks with the US, saying it speaks solely to Oman about control of the Strait of Hormuz; the two countries agreed on coordinates for shipping routes through the strait on Thursday.
- Fars news agency reported that an Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a preliminary bill to bar US, Israeli, and 'hostile' vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator, accused Trump on X of 'theater diplomacy on loop,' citing his pattern of threatening a 'massive attack' then announcing negotiations.
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 33 vessels between Monday and Thursday, down from 50 the previous week, per Reuters shipping data.
- A vague US-Iran MoU signed June 17 committed Iran to reopen the strait freely for 60 days, but disputes over routes led Iran to fire at ships taking the US/Oman-approved path and triggered resumed US strikes.
- David Des Roches, former Pentagon director of Arabian Peninsula affairs, told Al Jazeera Iran cannot be excluded from managing a waterway on its coast and will likely retain control in its territorial waters under any deal.
Why it matters: Trump has threatened Iran's annihilation 'five or six times' and backed down each time, eroding the credibility of any deal Tehran might sign, per Middle East Institute's Alan Eyre. Resolving Strait of Hormuz control — which carried one-fifth of global oil and LNG pre-war — won't end the conflict, since broader US-Iran peace talks haven't begun, and the shipping-fee dispute is now the binding constraint on de-escalation.
